Development in China with respect to:
- The gains and the losses for China’s poorer classes in current Chinese development.
- Prospects for future Economic growth and Human Welfare.
Abstract
Many years ago, Napoleon warned that when China awakens, the world will shudder. His prediction has been fulfilled over the last two decades. Thirty years ago, China had minimal contact with the international capitalist market and most of its people were based in agriculture, but since the late 1970s, when the Chinese leadership made a strategic choice to reform its economic system and to open up to the world economy, it has sustained an average annual economic growth of 10 percent, the fastest and most unprecedented in world history of economic development.
Introduction
Many years ago, Napoleon warned that when China awakens, the world will shudder (in Ho & Vermeer.2006:155). His prediction has been fulfilled over the last two decades. Thirty years ago, China had minimal contact with the international capitalist market and most of its people were based in agriculture, but since the late 1970s, when the Chinese leadership made a strategic choice to reform its economic system and to open up to the world economy, it has sustained an average annual economic growth of 10 percent, the fastest and most unprecedented in world history of economic development (Wang.2009:1). China’s rapid rise has given concern to many, especially the three musketeers of the world economy, the U.S.A., Japan, and South-Korea, so much so that in the 1990’s the perception of “China threat” arose (Wang.2009:1). In order to still suspicions and concerns, China coined the term “theory of peaceful rise”, which argues that China could take a very different route than other major powers in world history, posing an opportunity to the world, instead of a threat (Wang.2009:2). Whether it’s peaceful or not the fact remains that China is here to stay and that it will replace the U.S. according to many projections, as the largest economy by 2025-2040 (Wang.2009:1).
This essay will explore China’s development since economic reforms with regards to China’s current success as the newest economic superpower on the block, but also the political, financial, economic, social and environmental issues that confront China’s development. In other words, what the gains and losses for the poorer classes in current Chinese development are. The argument that China should resist both a return to Maoism and a complete move to the model of a free-market democracy is also discussed. Lastly, the prospects for future economic growth and human welfare in China are discussed.
China’s current success
China has had successes over the past two decades with regards to their economic explosion, due to economic liberalization; allowing Foreign Direct Investment into the country, where other countries have exercised protectionist policies; for improving the per capita GDP, improving income and purchasing power of consumer goods by its citizens; and for its commitment towards developing high technology industries, such as electronics, specifically computers.
Since economic reforms in the late 1970s, China has enjoyed one of the most remarkable periods of economic growth (Nolan.2005:241). The world has over the past two decades, witnessed the fastest change ever and anywhere of a rural economy and society where over 200 million rural inhabitants were lifted out from absolute poverty and tens of millions became wealthier than the average urban resident (Eyferth, Ho & Vermeer. 2003:97) China has radically liberalized its economy to the effect that it now produces high technology goods, is nurturing a vibrant private sector, and has attracted nearly US$ 500 billion in FDI, causing an economic explosion (Foreign Direct Investment) (Hale & Hughes Hale. 2003:135).
China’s decision to open its economy by promoting trade and FDI, ensured their smooth integration into the world economy, ensuring their success, where others like Japan and Korea with strict protectionist policies have failed (Hale & Hughes Hale. 2003:136). In 2003, China was the fifth largest recipient of FDI in the world, but was expected to leapfrog into second place in 2004 (Hale & Hughes Hale. 2003:136). Foreign companies now hold large shares in many sectors of the Chinese economy. The foreign-invested sector, whose share of the business sector output is 15-20 percent, dominates the export sector, accounting for nearly 60 percent of all exports and 90 percent of exports designated high-tech by the Chinese government (Kroeber.2008:32-33). American companies’ investment alone is worth more than US$ 70 billion in contracts and they generate more revenue from China than any other developing country they have invested in (Hale & Hughes Hale. 2003:136).
Deng Xiaoping has popularised the term ‘xiaokang’, which represents an ideal society that provides well for all its citizens, by translating it into a goal of US$ 800 GDP per capita before the end of the 20th century, a goal that was achieved, and which hugely improved China’s real income and living standards (Hale & Hughes Hale. 2003:138). China’s economic liberalization has led to a GDP of US$ 1.3 trillion in 2003 and seen together with the fact that China has stemmed population growth to 1 percent per year, its growth of output has translated into large gains in income per capita, leading to high penetration rates for many consumer goods, enabling many more Chinese consumers to afford technological luxuries such as TV’s, computers, refrigerators, etc (Hale & Hughes Hale. 2003:138). Residential real estate sales in big urban centers such as Shanghai and Beijing has skyrocketed and it's estimated that 90 percent of urban Chinese now, in fact, owns a home, with only Singapore at 92 percent in a higher position in Asia (Hale & Hughes Hale. 2003:138).
China’s quick embrace of the information economy as part of its commitment towards the development of high technology industries, even to the detriment of the government’s control over communication networks and its distribution of information throughout China, has led to the fact that more Chinese have access to the outside world through fixed phone lines, internet access, cable television and cell phones (Hale & Hughes Hale. 2003:140). China has become a serious player in the computer hardware and – software industries with considerable growth in domestic consumption within both sectors (Hale & Hughes Hale. 2003:140). China has also become the leading producer of certain types of electronics, such as DVD players and digital cameras due to the influx of foreign investment. The electronics industry has been boosted further by world leading Taiwanese electronics firms, who have moved their base of operations to mainland China (Hale & Hughes Hale. 2003:140-141).
The Third Way: Resisting Maoism and free-market democracy
China is at a crossroads with regards to its political economy and its unsure which direction it will take. China has four choices. It can adopt primitive capitalist accumulation or Democracy and the free market or it can go backward to Maoism or it can learn from its past. Nolan is of the view that China should neither revert back to Maoism, nor move towards a model of a free market democracy, but should, in fact, reform its system and improve the state, its level of effectiveness and eliminate corruption, the road which he refers to as the ‘choice of no choice’ (Nolan.2005:254).
Many believe that the overthrow of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is necessary to improve the welfare of Chinese people, an idea supported by the U.S. (Nolan.2005:247). According to Nolan (2005:247) however, this would “plunge the country into social and political chaos”. Avoidance of great turmoil has been the focus of political thought from the earliest times, and the core of the Chinese reform programme after the death of Mao followed suit, by trying to prevent China’s political economy from disintegrating and descending into ‘big turbulence’, which would ‘deprive the Chinese people of all hope’ and leading to a system meltdown as was the case in Russia, Yugoslavia, Argentina and Indonesia (Nolan.2005:247). The penetration of the US-dominated mass media, in accordance with WTO agreement, ensures that external pressure is applied upon Chinese internal ideology to convert to an ‘American’ or ‘natural’ path of development instead and which equals in American eyes, a regime change (Nolan.2005:247).
Should China revert back to Maoism? Mao Te Dong led the CCP on an attack on social inequality in attempt to transform the people’ work motivation, to overcome the classical ‘principal-agent’ problem, by liberating the people’s productive energies from the link with material reward (Nolan.2005:248). Mao hoped to create a non-capitalist, humane society, which provided the opportunity for the whole population to fulfill their potential and indeed from the mid-1950s to mid-1970s, China’s GNP growth rate was faster than most developing countries and most people enjoyed a high degree of livelihood security (Nolan.2005:248-249).
However, China paid a high price to suppress market forces completely, to cut China off from the global economy and society, to drastically constrain the dimensions of inequality, to eliminate material incentives and to radically limit cultural freedom (Nolan.2005:249). Maoist ideologies, the cultural revolution and Mao’s ‘Great Leap Forward”, brought suffering to many, crushed the diversity of thought, destroyed cultural expression, slowed technical progress, led to a fall in capital productivity and average per capita incomes, led to a decline or stagnation in per capita consumption, caused a dramatic rise in absolute poverty and with the ‘Great Leap Forward’, the biggest famine of the 20th century with as many as 30 million excess deaths (Nolan.2005:249). The Maoist development path left a trail of suffering and death and not many would like to return (Nolan.2005:249).
Even though China has made great technical advances, even before the West, it has failed to experience an industrial revolution and many believe that its history of traditional ‘totalitarian’ state has crushed the development of the market over its history and that it should learn from the past by reducing the economic role of the state even more (Nolan.2005:249). China has been groping for its own third way for 2000 years whereby they both stimulated and controlled the market at the same time according to a deeply thought-out system for rulers, bureaucrats and ordinary people (Nolan.2005:253).
According to Nolan, the Third way is the ‘choice of no choice’. China cannot go back to the Maoist period, nor can it choose the path of ‘state desertion’ and ‘free market fundamentalism’, since it will lead to uncontrollable tensions and social disintegration (Nolan.2005:253). China’s ‘choice of no choice’ must be to make more effective the role of the state to solve the intensifying socio-economic challenges to ensure China’s system survival, which in turn can contribute towards global survival and sustainable development (Nolan.2005:254).
China is, however, embracing capitalism, because its demographics are becoming like that of the West (Hale & Hughes Hale. 2003:139) According to Kroeber (2008:30), “China must be understood in terms of its long history as a bureaucratically administered state, which both enables and legitimises the increasingly effective modern bureaucratic state that has emerged in the last few decades” China is in economic terms, neither on a pre-ordained path to full market capitalism, nor the unitary statist ‘China Inc.’, but rather a mixed economy with a large state role and an equally heavy reliance on continued access to the liberal capitalist international order (Kroeber 2008:30). Bureaucratic authoritarianism, however repellent to the West, is a system with considerable purchase in China, which isn’t founded on discredited Communist ideology, but on well-established traditions and lastly has proved increasingly successful over an increasing range of functions (Kroeber 2008:32). “For the next decade, China’s people and the rest of the world will have to deal with the reality of a successful, effective bureaucratic state” (Kroeber 2008:32).
Issues that confront Chinese development
China is confronted by a myriad of developmental problems and challenges. As Nolan notes (2005:241-246) China “faces deep economic, political, and social challenges, which include; the vast extent of poverty and rapidly growing inequality; the challenge for Chinese businesses from the global business revolution; a deeply degraded natural environment; declining capabilities of the state; a comprehensive challenge in international relations; widespread corruption; and extreme dangers in engaging closely with the global financial system” The mere size of China (9.6 million km²), and its population (1.3 billion people) imply a wide regional diversity in economic, political, ecological, sociological and ethnic terms (Eyferth, Ho & Vermeer. 2003:96).
Issues that confront Chinese development: Political and Social
The totalitarian tradition of state control over people’s lives as well as the economy, even though it has largely diminished since the 1980s, still remains in the form of state-imposed institutions and constraints on human action. Public debate and participation in any decision-making processes are excluded due to the CCP’s monopoly of political power, its ban of free speech and free association, as well as the lack of an independent judiciary (Ho & Vermeer. 2006:150) Even though China is a bureaucratic authoritarian state that is repressive, it’s also dynamic in its ability to identify and respond to societal problems, which lends to it an important measure of legitimacy, despite the lack of civil liberties and the high degree of corruption within (Kroeber.2008:34).
The CCP’s secret to success and longevity seems to be China’s size (Kroeber. 2008:35). History has shown that as traditional agrarian societies industrialize, they exchange their despotic governments for representative governments. Early stage industrializing countries following the Bismarckian model of state-led development, tend to have bureaucratic authoritarian governments in which a technocratic elite organizes the commandeering of agricultural surplus for the purpose of high-speed industrialization, which then lasts until the country is industrialized and urbanized. In Taiwan and Korea, this process lasted only a generation, since they have smaller populations of 23 and 49 million people respectively, but China with 1.3 billion plus people will have to face a longer term (Kroeber.2008:36).
“Behind almost every aspect of China’s development process in the early 21st century, lies the harsh reality of the ‘Lewis model’ of economic development, with unlimited supplies of labor” (Nolan.2005:241). Almost 70 percent of the 1.3 billion Chinese population still lives in the countryside, with as many as 150 million ‘surplus’ farm workers (Nolan.2005:241). According to official Chinese data, there are approximately 580 million rural dwellers who have to survive on less than US$ 360 per year, calculating to less than one US dollar per day, signaling absolute poverty (Nolan.2005:241). China’s WTO membership forcing China to open the country to greater food imports, which will be competing against local food production, may further depress rural income, leading to rural-urban migration and consequent social instability of urban centers (Hale & Hughes Hale.2003:139).
Rural-urban migration was prior to political reforms, detained by household registration requirements (hukou), rural commune contracts and food rationing, but since 1990, due to the elimination of communes and the emergence of a free market for grain and other food items in the late 1980’s, rural to urban migration has picked up, first to Township and Village Enterprises (TVE’s) in rural areas, and then to the urban coastal regions (Brooks in Prasad. 2004:54-55). There are 150 million rural workers who have migrated to Coastal urban regions to find employment (Nolan.2005:241). Despite considerable progress made on reforms over the past two decades, surplus labor remains on State Owned Enterprises (SOE’s) and farms (Brooks in Prasad. 2004:56-57).
Unemployment and underemployment of a significant portion of the rural population remain pressing concerns as the Chinese economy adjusts to the effects of SOE reforms and WTO accession (Prasad & Rumbaugh.2004:4). SOE reforms in the late 1990s saw about 24 million SOE and other collective employees laid off from 1998 to 2002 as part of a xiagang program (re-employment program, which provided these workers with a three-year safety-net) (Brooks in Prasad. 2004:56). In 2005 there were 40-50 million workers who lost their jobs due to reforms in SOE’s (Nolan.2005:242). According to Eyferth, Ho and Vermeer (2003:101), is the rapid rise in urban unemployment, caused by the state-owned sector restructuring, pressurizing urban governments to reserve remaining jobs for the underemployed, limiting rural migrants’ chances on finding urban employment. Alongside the unemployed and rural migrants, a new urban ‘middle class’ is fast emerging, due to FDI by multi-national firms giving rise to clusters of modern businesses and residential areas (Nolan.2005:242).
Issues that confront Chinese development: Financial and Economic
In 1992, the CCP formally embraces Deng Xiaoping’s view that the market system was not incompatible with the ideals of socialism and called for the establishment of a socialist market economy (Prasad & Rumbaugh.2004:2). China’s economy, according to Kroeber (2008:32), is mixed and has three major elements, namely the state sector, the domestic private sector, and the foreign-invested sector. The state sector, whose share of business sector output is approximately one third and falling, completely dominates the upstream and network sectors of the economy, such as resource extraction, transportation and communication networks, electric power generation and distribution, finance and basic material industries, such as steel and petrochemicals. The domestic private sector, whose share of output is 50 percent and rising, dominates consumer goods manufacturing and retail. This sector virtually generates all employment growth. The last sector is the foreign-invested sector, whose share is only about 15-20 percent, but dominates the export sector, accounting for nearly 60 percent of all exports (Kroeber.2008:32).
Since the 1980s, China has implemented industrial policies aimed at nurturing a group of globally competitive large firms, but has failed fundamentally and instead of becoming the workshop of the world, it has become the workshop for the world, with over 60 percent of its industrial exports coming from foreign-invested companies (Nolan. 2005:242). As Wen (2009:5) states; “China is the kitchen and the West the dining room”. China is churning out more and more consumer goods for Western consumers, while most of the profits are amassed by multi-national corporations that control the brands and distribution channels (Wen. 2009:5). China has lacked to produce a group of internationally competitive large firms, like all successful industrializing countries, such as Korea and the U.S. before them. China does not have a single of the top 100 brands, nor has any of the 14 Chinese companies in the Fortune 500, become a truly globally competitive company that could compete without government protection (Nolan.2005:242). The likely cause seems to be that firms are state-owned and therefore subject to state interference in their operations (Nolan.2005:242).
China is facing important fiscal challenges in the course of its transition to a market economy. The government are shouldering various costs with relation to; the restructuring of a still largely state-owned economy; the costs of recapitalising state-owned banks; the funding of social security for a rapidly aging population; possible liabilities that sub-national governments are contracting, especially large scale infrastructure projects; and significant government programs to alleviate regional disparities, including the increasing spending on health care and education (Fedeline & Singh in Prasad.2004:29) The government has to shoulder all these costs, but according to the World Bank, the central government revenue accounted for only 7 percent of the GDP, which has forced the state to look for drastically increased contributions from fees paid by people when they use health and education services (Nolan.2005:243).
Issues that confront Chinese development: Environmental
Due to China’s rapid rise economically and industrially and its huge population, which has left serious damage to the environment, China is now facing an environmental crisis, like no country before. China’s economic reform has increased the pressure on the environment, from air and water pollution to soil erosion and desertification (Eyferth, Ho & Vermeer. 2003: 107). According to the UNDP, is around 38 percent of China been affected by soil erosion and is the area of desert increasing at an annual rate of 2 500 km² (Nolan.2005:243). Over the past 4 decades, nearly half of China’s forest’s have been destroyed, leaving China with one of the most sparse forest covers in the world (Nolan.2005:243). The majority of Chinese lakes are seriously eutrophied, yet chemical fertilizer usage is on the rise (Ho & Vermeer. 2006:147). China’s emission of organic water pollutants is as large as that of the U.S., Russia, India, and Japan combined (Nolan.2005:243). The massive overuse of fertilizer and pesticides has caused serious soil degradation and has undermined food safety (Wen.2009:40). According to Wen (2009:24), has China already overtaken the U.S. as the world’s largest CO² emitter in 2007, and the world’s biggest coal producer, accounting for almost 30 percent of global output (Wen.2009:24).
China is severely overpopulated, which leads to land scarcity for food production. The area of farmland per capita is low according to the world average and is aggravated by substantial losses in arable land due to rapid urbanization, industrialization and environmental problems, endangering food security (Eyferth, Ho & Vermeer. 2003: 107). China is also facing one of the world’s worst water shortages, since per capita it only has 35 percent of the world’s freshwater resources. Distribution is furthermore highly uneven, since the ‘Dry North’ has one third of the cropland, but only one fifth of the water, while the ‘Humid South’ with the same amount of cropland has four-fifths of the water, an imbalance which may be furthered by climate change (Wen.2009:5) Climate change, due to greenhouse gasses and global warming are also threatening China’s food security and according to calculations could lead to a 20-37 percent drop in the rice yield (Wen.2009:11; Nolan.2005:243)
China’s five year plan for environmental protection admits that ’ecological deterioration is not under effective control and emphasizes the linkages between economic growth, prevention of pollution and ecological conservation as parts of a needed economic restructuring, but its command and control type policies and legislation makes the reconciliation between environmental reform and economic growth, extremely difficult (Ho & Vermeer.2006:149) The absence of well-protected private land property and persistent state ownership in major industries, services, and resource exploitation, have enhanced a top-down, bureaucratic character of decisions over resource allocation and environmental control (Ho & Vermeer.2006:151). Factors that have limited the effectiveness of environmental policies are; the uneven commitment to environmental goals, the lack of effective public pressure on government and polluting enterprises, limited awareness and the state’s inadequate capacity to monitor and control (Ho & Vermeer.2006:151) While China has faced severe environmental problems, it has made considerable efforts in the direction of “green” government policy, but even though these efforts are applauded, business and government accountability still lacks (Stewart.2007:14).
Prospects for future Economic Growth and Human Welfare
An issue today in China is whether rapid growth is sustainable or whether the problems produced by growth will force China to pursue a more regulated and conservative course or whether it will lead to political and economic crisis (Stewart.2007:12). “There are strong prospects that China’s rapid economic growth and trade expansion could be sustained well into the future” (Prasad &Rumbaugh.2004:1). However, a number of macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities need to be addressed for this potential to be fully realized.
Given the size and complexity of the Chinese economy, many of these reform challenges are interrelated (Prasad &Rumbaugh.2004:1). “China’s traditional approach to reform has been incremental but, in view of its rapid opening up to the world economy, a more concerted and multifaceted approach to the reform process will be crucial to maintain rapid growth and manage the challenges associated with the process of global integration” (Prasad &Rumbaugh.2004:1). China’s economy has good potential for sustained robust growth over the medium term, based on its attractiveness as a destination for FDI, a high domestic saving rate, underlying improvements in productivity stemming from reduced barriers to both internal and external trade, and significant surplus labor (Prasad &Rumbaugh.2004:4).
China’s rapid economic growth and the rise in the nation’s overall wealth have been accompanied by widening income inequality both among and within regions. In addition, while successful technology innovation will help China continue to increase its agricultural productivity, China faces the great challenge of water scarcity. Water shortages, particularly in northern China, and increasing competition from industry and domestic use; do not provide much hope for large gains in irrigation expansion or in areas already under irrigation. In addition to water scarcity, there is considerable stress being put on the agricultural land base. While the use of modern technologies is essential to achieve efficient food production, inappropriate uses, such as the excessive application of fertilizers and pesticides, could result in serious environmental problems and food safety concerns. The decline in cultivated land and rising water scarcity are thus among the greatest concerns regarding national food (grain) security (Huang &Rozelle:3).
The overall prospects for China’s continued growth and development over the medium term are positive, although there are several reasons for concern, both in the international and national contexts. At the international level, there are serious imbalances in some countries’ trade, most notably current account deficits in the United States and surpluses in China and oil-producing countries (He, Li & Polaski. 2007:26). If the imbalances were to be corrected rapidly—for example, by a sharp shift in exchange rates or a rise in protectionism—there could be strong negative effects on China’s export sector (He, Li & Polaski. 2007:26). There is excess productive capacity at the global level in labor-intensive manufactures, such as textiles, apparel, and consumer electronics, and in some capital-intensive products, such as steel and shipbuilding. This has put sustained downward pressure on prices for such goods, affecting the income for labor and capital employed in those sectors. In contrast, world energy prices have been trending higher, which accentuates the relatively inefficient use of energy in the Chinese economy (He, Li & Polaski. 2007:26). As China liberalizes its financial markets in compliance with its WTO commitments, the flow of international resources may increase, but there is also a greater risk of financial instability and contagion (He, Li & Polaski. 2007:26).
Conclusion
China is experiencing an economic explosion and a phenomenal level of development, never seen before. Economic liberalisation due to government reforms, has taken China from an agrarian economy towards an industrial superpower who threatens the U.S. China’s successes include attracting Foreign Direct Investment into the country, ignoring protectionist policies that have failed others, improving the per capita GDP, improving income and purchasing power of consumer goods for its citizens; and its commitment towards developing high technology industries. China’s political economy is at a crossroads and there is a debate which direction it should take. Nolan is of the view that China should neither revert back to Maoism, nor move towards a model of free-market democracy, but should, in fact, reform its system and improve the state, its level of effectiveness and eliminate corruption, the road which he refers to as the ‘choice of no choice’.
Bureaucratic authoritarianism, however repellent to the West, is a system with considerable purchase in China, which has proven increasingly successful over an increasing range of functions. China is facing many different types of developmental issues. The communist state’s single-party authoritarian leadership, widespread government corruption, poverty and inequality, unemployment, rural-urban migration, surplus rural labour, state interference in companies, lack of access to improved education, health, water and electricity, disparities in regional development, industrial pollution, water scarcity, soil erosion and desertification, gender discrimination, food security, climate change, lack of sufficient mineral and natural resource for exploration within China, land scarcity, lack of social security for its aging population and its carbon emissions. At its currents pace of industrial growth, China will have to commit to environmental conservation not only for their survival, but also for the rest of the world’s survival.
China will need to balance economic growth with environmental protection to ensure the welfare of its citizens. Economically speaking, China faces good prospects, but macro-economic and structural vulnerabilities need to be addressed for this potential to be fully realized. A multifaceted approach to the economic reform process will also be crucial to maintain rapid growth and manage the challenges associated with the process of global integration. China’s economic growth has led to widening income inequality both among and within regions and has exerted a huge amount of pressure on its water and land resources, posing threats to its food security and are serious issues that need attention. China has come to stay, but to ensure its sustainability, continued economic and environmental reforms are crucial if it wants to keep rising.
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